AGP Executive Report

Offshore Oil & Gas Expansion: Eni and partners (Petroci, Vitol) have approved the final investment decision for Baleine Phase 3 off Côte d’Ivoire, lifting oil output from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 MMcfd, with all gas earmarked for the domestic market to back electricity generation and local industry. Cocoa Supply Shock: Cocoa futures jumped nearly 10% as heavy flooding in the Ivory Coast cut farmers’ access to plantations, while El Niño fears add longer-term risk for the 2026/27 crop. Industrialisation Benchmark: The AfDB’s Africa Industrialisation Index puts Morocco first in Africa for the first time, with Côte d’Ivoire listed among the continent’s leading industrial economies in the top tier. Gold Project Permitting: Aurum secured three EIESA environmental and social impact certificates for its Boundiali Gold Project, clearing a key step toward mining licence issuance. Trade & Logistics Pulse: MSC says Africa recorded the fastest growth in cargo volumes from Asia in 2025, with shipments to Africa up 27%, reflecting shifting routes and rising demand. Telecom Customer Focus: Orange Côte d’Ivoire held direct customer talks with the digital transition ministry, regulator ARTCI and consumer groups to address complaints and rebuild trust.

Energy & Oil & Gas (Côte d’Ivoire): Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved the final investment decision for Baleine Phase 3 offshore Côte d’Ivoire, lifting oil output from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 MMcfd, with all gas earmarked for the domestic market to back electricity generation and industrial development; the project adds a new FPSO and is positioned as a lower-impact, fast-track expansion. Mining (Côte d’Ivoire): Kobo Resources reported fresh high-grade gold intersections at its Kossou project (including 7.0m at 5.67 g/t Au and 2.0m at 75.29 g/t Au at Jagger/Road Cut zones), reinforcing continuity of mineralisation as drilling expands the resource footprint. Cocoa & Agriculture (Côte d’Ivoire): Reuters reports improving rainfall across key cocoa regions offers cautious mid-crop relief, but farmers face a major shock after the government cut the fixed farmgate price by 57% to 1,200 CFA francs/kg for the mid-crop. Development Finance (Africa/AfDB): At its Brazzaville meetings, the AfDB pushed the theme of mobilising development financing at scale, citing a $400bn annual gap and warning that higher food, fuel and fertilizer costs from the Iran war could still bite if it drags on. Food Supply Chains (West Africa): A report on livestock markets links soaring costs to conflict, export bans and climate shocks, squeezing traders and pushing Eid demand into a higher-price, lower-volume reality. Telecom (Côte d’Ivoire): Orange Côte d’Ivoire held direct customer talks with regulators and consumer groups to address rising complaints and rebuild trust. Logistics (Ghana): Ghana’s Shippers Authority capped container administrative charges, a move welcomed by shippers as port-cost relief.

Energy & Investment: Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved the Final Investment Decision for Baleine Phase 3 offshore Côte d’Ivoire, targeting oil output to rise from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 MMcf/d, with all gas directed to the domestic market to back power generation and industry; the project adds a new FPSO and is positioned as a fast-track, lower-impact expansion. Cocoa Market Shock: Cocoa futures jumped nearly 10% as heavy flooding in Ivory Coast disrupted farmers’ access to plantations, while El Niño fears and Hormuz-related disruptions added pressure; separate reporting says Côte d’Ivoire expects 2025/26 cocoa output to rise 10.5% to 2.0–2.1 million tons, but farmers still face a price shock from a major cut in the fixed farmgate price. Mining Update: Kobo Resources reported high-grade gold results from additional drilling at its Kossou Gold Project near Kossou, including strong intersections at the Jagger and Road Cut zones, extending mineralisation at depth and along strike. Agribusiness & Trade: A Reuters field report notes rainfall variability across Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa regions is improving for the mid-crop, but producers are dealing with the government’s reduced farmgate price and large unsold volumes. Business & Services: Orange Côte d’Ivoire held direct customer talks with regulators and consumer groups under a “trust and proximity” push to address rising complaints. Infrastructure & Safety: Abidjan saw a deadly building-site collapse with eight fatalities reported.

Energy Investment: Eni, with Petroci and Vitol, has just approved the Final Investment Decision for Baleine Phase 3 offshore Côte d’Ivoire—pushing oil output from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 mmcf/d, with all gas earmarked for the domestic market and a new FPSO planned for delivery by mid-2028. Mining Momentum: Aurum Resources cleared a key regulatory hurdle for its Boundiali gold project after Côte d’Ivoire issued three environmental approval certificates covering all licence areas—moving the project closer to mining licences and development studies. Cocoa Pressure: Cocoa production is expected to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tonnes, but farmers are still dealing with a major mid-crop farmgate price cut and uneven weather. Business & Trade: Orange Côte d’Ivoire is holding direct customer talks to rebuild trust amid complaints, while Ghana’s port cost reforms debate continues across the region. Safety Watch: Abidjan recorded a deadly building collapse—8 dead—highlighting ongoing construction and permitting risks.

Energy Investment: Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved the final investment decision for Baleine Phase 3 off Côte d’Ivoire, a $4bn push that would lift oil output from 60,000 to 150,000 bpd and gas from 80 to 200 mmcf/d, with all gas routed to the domestic market; a new FPSO is planned and the project is framed as faster, phased development to strengthen energy security. Telecom Trust: Orange Côte d’Ivoire held direct talks with customers to tackle complaints spreading on social media, bringing in the ministry, the regulator and consumer groups under a “trust and proximity” push. Mining Momentum: Kobo Resources reported fresh high-grade gold hits at Kossou (Kossou’s Jagger and Road Cut zones), while Aurum cleared a key regulatory hurdle at Boundiali by securing three environmental approval certificates for mining licence areas. Cocoa Pressure: Reuters reports rainfall is improving for the mid-crop, but farmers face a major price shock after the government cut the fixed farmgate price by 57%. Safety Alert: Abidjan saw a deadly building collapse under construction, with authorities citing heavy rains and concrete-pouring as contributing factors and noting the site lacked a construction permit.

Oil & Gas Acceleration: Eni wants to fast-track its $4bn offshore Baleine Phase 3 in Côte d’Ivoire, aiming to cut the schedule after stronger crude prices improve the economics; output is targeted to jump from ~60,000 to 150,000 barrels/day and gas to rise sharply. Cocoa Momentum: Ivory Coast cocoa production is expected to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1m tons, helped by better farm practices and higher prices, though traders still note large volumes unsold. Gold Pipeline Cleared: Aurum Resources secured three environmental approval certificates for its Boundiali project, removing a key regulatory hurdle ahead of mining licence approvals. Construction Safety Shock: Abidjan saw a deadly building collapse—eight people reported dead—linked to heavy rains and concrete-pouring, with authorities citing missing permits. Trade & Identity Signals: China’s zero-tariff push for African exporters continues to reshape market access, while ID4Africa highlights how digital identity rollouts are moving from policy talk to real border operations.

Cocoa Outlook: Ivory Coast is forecasting cocoa output of 2.0–2.1 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 10.5% jump and the first growth in three years, as higher prices helped farmers buy fertiliser and improve plantation management; arrivals are already tracking above last seasons, though traders warn plenty of stock still isn’t sold. Mining & Approvals: Aurum Resources cleared a key step for its Boundiali gold project, receiving three environmental approval certificates covering all licence areas—removing a major regulatory hurdle as the company pushes toward feasibility work and eventual production. Construction Safety: In Abidjan, a building under construction collapsed, killing eight; authorities cite heavy rains and concrete-pouring issues, and say the site lacked a construction permit. China-Africa Trade Push: China’s zero-tariff expansion is being paired with cultural exchange events, reinforcing deeper trade ties that could keep demand flowing for African commodities. Logistics & Connectivity: Air travel and border friction remain a theme across the week, from complaints about regional flights to ongoing work on smoother cross-border processing.

Disaster in Abidjan: Eight people died after a building under construction collapsed in Koumassi, with officials pointing to heavy rains plus concrete-pouring on the fifth storey, and saying the site lacked a construction permit while responsibility is being investigated. Mining approvals move forward: Aurum Resources says Côte d’Ivoire’s environment ministry issued three Environmental and Social Impact Assessment certificates for its Boundiali gold project, clearing all three proposed licence areas and taking the project a major step closer to development studies. Cocoa watch: Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1 million tons, a potential rebound after years of weather and disease pressure—while global prices remain sensitive to supply signals. World Cup buzz: Group E preview coverage puts Germany as favorites, with Ecuador and Ivory Coast fighting for qualification, and Curacao as the feel-good story. Sports safety and infrastructure pressure: The week’s collapse adds urgency to calls for stronger enforcement as construction keeps expanding in Abidjan.

Journalist Safety Push: New laws are moving into force, and media groups are urging tighter protections for reporters as election-period risks rise. Cocoa Supply Signals: Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rebound to 2.0–2.1m tons in 2025/26, lifting arrivals but also keeping pressure on global prices as inventories climb. Trade & Connectivity: ID4Africa’s biometrics rollout highlights smoother execution in parts of Africa than in some European implementations, while aviation ministers and logistics stakeholders keep calling for better air links to unlock investment and industrial growth. Regional Logistics: MSC is expanding door-to-door logistics via Cameroon’s Kribi port, linking Asia-to-Central Africa routes more directly. Industrial Expansion Watch: Morocco’s CIMAF is investing $45m in Gabon to expand cement and clinker capacity as clinker imports are set to be banned from 2027. Digital Finance: Ghana’s BoG is designing e-cedi for cross-border and wholesale payments after a successful pilot phase.

Chocolate Backlash Meets Cocoa Reality: Online complaints are growing that chocolate tastes and feels “off” after makers quietly cut cocoa and leaned more on sugar—while West Africa’s weather shocks keep cocoa supply tight and prices volatile. Cocoa Market Signals: Ivory Coast is still forecasting a rebound to 2.0–2.1m tons in 2025/26, but global prices have been sliding as inventories rise and traders watch for “abundant supply” momentum. Rubber Watch: Japanese rubber futures fell again as Thailand’s supply improves and Ivory Coast moves into peak harvesting, while weak downstream demand keeps pressure on tyre margins. Trade & Connectivity: AfCFTA-linked one-stop border posts get fresh momentum (Togo’s Cinkassé spotlight), and logistics expansion continues with MSC integrating Cameroon’s Kribi port into door-to-door routes. Industrial Pulse (Côte d’Ivoire): Abidjan’s Tower F nears completion, adding a new skyline landmark as the country pushes urban consolidation and services in the administrative city.

Eid Supply Crunch: Abidjan’s Adjame market is seeing higher Tabaski prices as Ivory Coast’s usual Sahel livestock pipeline is choked—Burkina Faso halted exports, Niger followed, and Mali’s routes are disrupted by jihadist-linked violence, leaving traders with animals stuck at borders and fewer buyers able to bargain. Cocoa Outlook: The CCC says Ivory Coast cocoa output could rebound 10.5% in 2025/26 to 2.0–2.1m tons, but global prices are still pressured by rising inventories and expectations of abundant supply. Trade Facilitation Momentum: AfCFTA’s one-stop border push is spotlighting Togo’s Cinkassé OSBP, while regional connectivity talks keep returning to the same fix: faster, simpler cross-border movement. Finance & Payments: Ghana’s BoG is designing e-cedi for cross-border and wholesale payments after a pilot phase. Regional Logistics: MSC is expanding door-to-door Central Africa links via Kribi port, tying Cameroon to Chad and CAR.

AfCFTA Border Push: Togo’s Cinkassé crossing is being spotlighted as AfCFTA’s scanning systems and secretariat sign an MoU to roll out one-stop border posts across Africa—built on the Cinkassé model where customs, health and transport sit together, with 382,000+ vehicles passing in 2025 (+20%). Cocoa Watch: Ivory Coast forecasts cocoa output rising 10.5% to 2.0–2.1m tons in 2025/26, a potential relief after years of weather and disease shocks—though traders still note plenty of unsold beans. Trade & Payments: Bank of Ghana moves ahead with e-cedi design for cross-border and wholesale payments after a pilot phase. Logistics Expansion: MSC links Cameroon’s Kribi port into door-to-door routes reaching Chad and CAR, aiming to cut delays and spoilage risk. Industry Signal: Tunisia’s FIPA-Tunisia courts an Abidjan plastics-shoe investor targeting nearly 400 jobs.

Cocoa rebound watch: Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa supplier, now expects output to jump to 2.0–2.1 million tons in 2025/26, a first big recovery after three tough years—good news for farmers and a potential pressure release for global chocolate prices. Cocoa price pressure: Even with the rebound forecast, cocoa futures slid as the dollar strengthened and ICE inventories climbed to about a 1.75-year high, keeping traders cautious. Exploration leadership: Lithium Africa named Dr. Rachel Hampton as VP of Exploration, signaling a push to sharpen lithium target generation and efficiency. Human-history shock (Ivory Coast): New research points to people living in West African rainforests around 150,000 years ago, rewriting earlier assumptions. Aviation connectivity push: Nigeria’s Festus Keyamo urged faster African air integration as economic infrastructure, while regional stakeholders echoed the same theme for AfCFTA. Industrial jobs signal: An Ivorian investor is planning a Tunisia industrial unit that could create nearly 400 direct jobs.

Aviation Connectivity Push: Nigeria’s aviation minister Festus Keyamo used a Abuja lecture to argue Africa can’t keep lagging on air links, calling aviation “economic infrastructure” and urging priorities that support cross-border movement for trade, industry and tourism. Legal Shock to Europe’s Aviation: A Paris appeals court found Air France and Airbus guilty of involuntary manslaughter over the 2009 Rio–Paris crash, overturning an earlier acquittal—another reminder that safety and accountability are now board-level issues. Ivory Coast–Morocco Diplomacy: Côte d’Ivoire and Dominica publicly backed Morocco’s Sahara autonomy plan, adding diplomatic weight to Rabat’s Africa outreach. Industrial Signals for the Region: A Tunisia-bound industrial project by an Ivorian investor could create nearly 400 direct jobs, while offshore and mining firms elsewhere keep expanding—suggesting capital is still hunting for workable projects. Cocoa Pressure, Then Possible Relief: With cocoa supply expectations rising and prices easing, chocolate makers are again moving toward higher cocoa content, a potential tailwind for West African farmers.

Diplomacy for trade corridors: Ivory Coast and Dominica publicly backed Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Sahara, reinforcing Rabat’s push to win more African and Atlantic partners. Intra-Africa commerce push: AfCFTA and Ecobank are expanding trade finance to help SMEs, women-led firms and youth traders move goods across borders faster. Energy and logistics momentum: The ARPEL conference will spotlight South American commercial interests in Africa, while Ghana’s Tema port area gets a boost as Agility Logistics Park earns EDGE Advanced green warehouse certification. Oil price pressure: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions still reshaping routes, African import-dependent economies face higher fuel costs and tighter budgets. Cocoa supply watch: Cocoa prices eased as Ivory Coast lifted its delivery outlook and port shipments rose, keeping an “abundant supply” narrative in play. Mining deal signals: Altair Minerals is expanding its Guyana landholdings up to 3,500 km² after a deal to scale the Greater Oko project.

Rubber & fuel shock: Japanese rubber futures slid after Thailand and the Ivory Coast stepped up tapping, with Ivory Coast moving into peak harvesting next week—while across Africa, higher oil prices are pushing up food, transport and power costs, sparking public anger and forcing governments to scramble for relief. Cocoa pressure, then a comeback: Cocoa prices eased again as supply expectations firmed (Ivory Coast’s delivery outlook and port shipments), but the slump is also nudging big chocolate brands back toward “real chocolate” after years of cocoa-light alternatives. Ivory Coast industrial momentum: Agility’s Tema Logistics Park in Ghana just earned EDGE Advanced certification for major energy and water savings—another reminder that efficiency is becoming a competitive edge in West Africa’s logistics race. Trade connectivity push: AfCFTA leaders are doubling down on air links to cut border friction and transport costs. Cote d’Ivoire energy spotlight: SPE Africa set ATC 2026 in Abidjan (16–18 June) with a new Africa Gas & Innovations Summit.