AGP Executive Report

Cocoa Supply Shock: Cocoa prices slid again as Ivory Coast shipments rose to 2.09MMT (+21% y/y) and inventories hit a 2-year high, while heavy rains are also expected to cut the 2026/27 main crop by 10%+ (with some forecasts closer to 20%) due to flower/pod losses and disease pressure. Cocoa Value Chain Push: Ivory Coast and Ghana are moving to stabilize the sector after steep price drops by coordinating farmer support and standards, and a wider cocoa alliance is set to expand to Nigeria and Cameroon to negotiate as a bloc. Oil & Gas Engineering: Eni is advancing Baleine Phase 3 offshore Côte d’Ivoire with OneSubsea winning an EPC contract for subsea production systems for 13 wells, supported by local capabilities. Digital Infrastructure: Raxio Group raised committed capital to $380m and is expanding its carrier-neutral data centre footprint that already includes Côte d’Ivoire, aiming to meet fast-growing demand. Energy & Industry Policy: The African Union invited Edo State’s power commissioner to speak in Abidjan, highlighting energy reforms as a driver for industrialisation and investment. Regional Connectivity: CSquared launched capacity on the 2Africa West cable to reduce landing-hub concentration risk across West and Central Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire highlighted by past subsea disruptions.

Cocoa Supply Shock: Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 main cocoa crop is forecast to drop by more than 10% to about 1.35–1.45 million tonnes as excessive rainfall, disease pressure and weak crop treatment hit yields, with late-June surveys showing over 20% of flowers and young pods lost. Cocoa Market Reform: Ivory Coast and Ghana are pushing cooperation to stabilize the sector and improve farmer pay after sharp price swings; a wider cocoa alliance is also set to expand to Nigeria and Cameroon under an Abuja Declaration. Energy & Industry Contracts: TechnipFMC won a subsea contract for Eni’s Baleine Phase 3 offshore Ivory Coast, supporting higher domestic gas supply; Equinor and Eni also led major regional deal flow. Digital Infrastructure: CSquared added capacity on the 2Africa West cable to reduce landing-hub concentration risk across West and Central Africa. Industrial Policy Push: At Abidjan’s African Economic Conference, AfDB, UNDP and OECD urged turning resilience into trade, value addition and stronger public policy—while a new African chief economists network aims to speed coordinated economic action in CEMAC. Critical Minerals Strategy: UN ECA flagged Africa’s low value capture from critical minerals and called for regional industrialization to benefit from the energy transition.

Cocoa Value Chain Diplomacy: Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire will sign the Abuja Declaration to form a Cocoa Value Addition Alliance, aiming to coordinate policy, harmonize standards and negotiate as one bloc after a severe price collapse that has squeezed producer prices and fueled smuggling. Cocoa Market Signals: Despite recent rallies, cocoa futures slid sharply as Ivory Coast shipments rose and inventories climbed, while heavy rains raised disease and yield risks—keeping prices pulled between supply strength and weather threats. Youth & Jobs Pressure: A Côte d’Ivoire report spotlights how many young people still can’t land steady work, pushing them into teaching, call centers and gig-based income—an industrial skills and employment challenge for the country’s growth agenda. Reforestation for Development: Côte d’Ivoire marked National Tree Day with a push to lift forest cover to at least 20% by 2030, citing agriculture expansion, illegal mining and bushfires as key drivers of forest loss. Infrastructure Financing: An ECOWAS forum in Abidjan urged West African governments to lean more on public-private partnerships, warning public budgets alone can’t close the region’s roads, power, water and housing gap. Energy Sector Support: Beacon Power Services agreed to back the Abidjan-based Association of Power Utilities of Africa through 2028, targeting grid modernization and power-loss reduction via digital tools.

Youth & Jobs: In Abidjan, a new report spotlights how many young Ivorians still can’t land steady work, pushing graduates into part-time teaching, call centers, and gig hustles—an industrial signal that skills-to-jobs pipelines need scaling. Fertilizer & Mining: A fresh analysis flags phosphate as a strategic lever for food security, pointing to Morocco and Tunisia as key supply and logistics partners amid export disruptions. Cocoa Supply & Prices: Cocoa markets react to Ivory Coast supply signals and weather-driven risks, with inventories rising and prices swinging as rains affect farm access and disease pressure. Agri-Industrial Policy: Côte d’Ivoire marks National Tree Day with a push to lift forest coverage to 20% by 2030, citing threats from agriculture expansion and illegal mining—directly tied to sustainable production. Power Sector Modernization: Beacon Power Services signs on as sponsor/technical partner for Abidjan-based APUA, backing grid analytics and digital upgrades that can cut losses and improve electricity reliability. Digital & Agri Cooperation: India-Ivory Coast talks highlight digital public infrastructure and agro-processing cooperation, including farm mechanization and improved seeds.

World Cup Quarterfinal Impact: England edged Norway 2-1 in extra time in Miami, with Jude Bellingham scoring twice in brutal heat, sending the Three Lions into the semifinals and keeping Norway’s surprise run alive. Cocoa Supply & Prices: West African cocoa markets stayed volatile as heavy rains and logistics disruptions in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria lifted price pressure, with Ivory Coast shipments up but inventories rising—traders are watching disease risk and the next crop closely. Reforestation for Growth: Côte d’Ivoire is pushing reforestation as an economic development lever, aiming for at least 20% forest cover by 2030 after forest loss driven by agriculture, illegal mining, fires and urbanization. Power Sector Modernisation: Abidjan-based APUA secured a partnership with Beacon Power Services to support grid analytics and digital transformation across African utilities, targeting reduced losses and better electricity reliability. Digital & Agro-Processing Cooperation: India’s digital public infrastructure experience is being discussed with Côte d’Ivoire, alongside farm mechanisation, improved seeds and agro-processing collaboration.

Cocoa Value Chain Push: Côte d’Ivoire is trying to turn reforestation into an economic engine, targeting at least 20% forest cover by 2030 as degradation is blamed on farming expansion, illegal gold mining, bushfires and urban growth. Cocoa Market Volatility: Cocoa prices swung sharply lower after signs of robust Ivory Coast supplies, with inventories rising and port shipments up 21% year-on-year—yet heavy rains and disease risk (black pod/brown rot) keep supply uncertainty alive. Gulf Offtake for Processing: Ghana secured UAE and Saudi commitments for semi-finished cocoa products (liquor, butter, cake, powder), underlining a regional shift from raw beans to higher-value processing—pressure that also hits Côte d’Ivoire and the wider West African sector. Digital & Agro-Industry Links: India and Côte d’Ivoire discussed cooperation on digital public infrastructure and agro-processing, including farm mechanisation and improved seeds. Power Sector Modernisation: Abidjan-based APUA partners with Beacon Power Services to back grid analytics and digital transformation for African utilities, aiming to cut losses and modernise ageing systems. Aviation Liberalisation Theme: Zimbabwe’s SAATM push to liberalise African skies echoes the wider regional push to improve cross-border logistics and trade connectivity.

Reforestation Push: Côte d’Ivoire is betting on tree planting to drive jobs and growth, aiming for at least 20% forest cover by 2030 as it tackles deforestation linked to farming expansion, illegal gold mining, bushfires and urbanization. Cocoa Market Shock: Heavy rains across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are disrupting cocoa supply chains and raising disease fears, sending prices to a near six-month high as inventories climb and traders price in lower 2026–27 output. Power Sector Modernization: Abidjan-based APUA secured a deal with South Africa’s Beacon Power Services to fund research and digital tools to cut losses and modernize aging utility grids—supporting more reliable electricity across Africa. Aviation Liberalization (Regional): Zimbabwe is reviewing bilateral air service agreements to align with SAATM and the Yamoussoukro Decision—an approach that could boost intra-African trade and competition, with lessons for West African hubs. Education Finance Tool: UNESCO urged wider debt-for-education swaps, citing cases including Ivory Coast school construction, as more countries spend on debt service than schooling. Mining Investment Watch: Senegal’s Fortuna Mining says it expects a final permit soon for the Diamba Sud gold project, signaling continued interest in West Africa’s mining pipeline.

Aviation Liberalisation: Zimbabwe is reviewing bilateral air service agreements across Africa to align with the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and the Yamoussoukro Decision—aiming to cut protectionism and open route access for more competition and trade. Cocoa Supply Shock: Cocoa prices jumped to a near six-month peak as heavy rains across Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire disrupt harvesting and raise black pod/brown rot risks, with markets watching El Niño-linked weather threats. Renewables for Industry: Côte d’Ivoire boosted its renewable power push by switching on a new solar plant and adding 52 MW, supporting cleaner energy for businesses and households. Mining & Jobs: MTN Côte d’Ivoire and ALX are funding XOF 700 million for youth digital skills training (AI, data, entrepreneurship) to improve employability and feed demand for tech talent. Space for Agriculture: Abidjan hosted the second African Space Solutions Market, showcasing satellite imagery, drones and Earth observation to tackle farm challenges like land tenure security. Education Finance: UNESCO urged wider debt-for-education swaps, citing that many countries spend more on debt service than schooling—highlighting a path to fund schools, including Côte d’Ivoire’s past debt-swap-supported school builds. Transport Infrastructure: The AfDB approved €205m for Morocco’s Kenitra–Marrakech rail corridor upgrade and high-speed rail extension to cut travel times and logistics costs.

Africa at the World Cup: A new wave of African pride is reshaping how brands see the continent, with nine of 10 African teams reaching the knockout stage and fans across borders rallying in real time. Cocoa & Food Industry: Cocoa prices surged again as West African weather worsened—heavy rains and disease risk are tightening supplies in Ivory Coast and Ghana, while the World Cocoa Foundation pushes a new deforestation risk assessment to meet tougher EU rules. Côte d’Ivoire Digital Skills: MTN Côte d’Ivoire and ALX are funding XOF 700m for 6–8 weeks of training for youth in AI, data analytics, and entrepreneurship. Transport & Logistics Finance: The AfDB approved €205m for Morocco’s high-speed rail expansion to cut travel times and logistics costs—another signal of infrastructure-led trade competitiveness. Shipping Connectivity: HMM launched its first hub-and-spoke service for Spain–West Africa, adding calls including Abidjan to improve punctuality and reduce port congestion. Energy & Infrastructure in the Region: EBID approved $417m for West Africa projects spanning roads, healthcare, housing finance, mining, and regional connectivity.

Digital Skills & Youth Employability: MTN Côte d’Ivoire and ALX are funding XOF 700 million for 6–8 weeks of training for young people, covering AI career essentials, data analytics, entrepreneurship and freelancing to meet rising demand for digital talent. Cocoa Supply & Prices: Cocoa futures surged as Jefferies warned of a “perfect storm” in West Africa, citing heavy rain and crop stress in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana that could cut output and raise disease risk. Cocoa Compliance & Deforestation Rules: The World Cocoa Foundation unveiled a new Active Deforestation Risk Assessment methodology for supply chains, aimed at helping companies meet tightening EU deforestation and sustainability due-diligence requirements. Space for Agriculture: Abidjan hosts the 2nd African Space Solutions Market (July 7–9), showcasing satellite and drone tools for farmers, including tech for land tenure security. Logistics & Shipping: HMM launched its first hub-and-spoke service in Africa, linking Spain to West Africa with feeder calls including Abidjan to improve vessel punctuality and cut logistics friction. Energy & Industry Finance: EBID approved $417mn for West Africa projects spanning transport, healthcare, housing finance and mining, with plans to double its balance sheet to tackle the region’s infrastructure funding gap.

Cocoa Supply Shock: Cocoa prices surged again, with heavy rains in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana flooding roads, disrupting farm access and raising disease risk—while El Niño odds and early 2026/27 crop signals add medium-term support. West African Shipping: Ocean Network Express launched its Mediterranean–Africa Express (MAX) service, adding a weekly rotation that links Algeciras, Tangier, Dakar, Tema, Lekki and Abidjan to major global lanes. Ivory Coast Energy & Oil: TechnipFMC won an Ivory Coast subsea contract, while Eni’s Baleine Phase 3 moves forward with a new FPSO order for the Côte d’Ivoire offshore project. Ivory Coast Renewables: The country switched on 52 MW of solar, boosting the renewables push. Trade & Finance for Industry: EBID approved $417mn for West Africa projects spanning transport, healthcare, housing finance, mining and regional connectivity, aiming to expand its balance sheet. Digital Payments in Liberia: BanffPay secured a Central Bank of Liberia PSP license to launch a unified pay-in/pay-out API for businesses. Air Connectivity Boost: HMM rolled out its first hub-and-spoke Africa service, using feeder links to improve punctuality and connectivity across West Africa. Mining Pact in Abidjan: A ministerial forum on critical minerals value chains and beneficiation is set for Abidjan on July 10.

Ivory Coast Energy Push: The country inaugurated the 52 MW Ferké solar plant in Tchologo (XOF 41bn, 73,000+ panels, 90 GWh/year), targeting power for 370,000 households plus schools and health centers, as more 50 MW projects are lined up before end-2027. Regional Finance for Industry: ECOWAS development bank EBID approved $417mn for five projects spanning transport, healthcare, housing finance, mining and regional connectivity, with plans to double its balance sheet over five years to close a $36bn infrastructure gap. Shipping & Logistics: HMM launched its first hub-and-spoke Africa service (MA2), linking Spain and West Africa via feeder calls including Abidjan, while Ocean Network Express rolled out its Mediterranean Africa Express (MAX) route with a weekly rotation that includes Tema and Abidjan. Oil & Gas Investment: Dangote confirmed its planned 700,000-bpd refinery in Kenya’s Lamu will be completed within 30 months, and Côte d’Ivoire’s Baleine Phase 3 moves forward with a contract for a 90,000-bpd FPSO. Digital Payments: Liberia’s BanffPay secured a PSP license and launched a unified pay-in/pay-out API to help businesses manage digital payments. Mining Pact: The MOTA 2026 Summit in Paris focused on securing Africa’s mining future through sovereignty, sustainability and partnerships.

Ivory Coast Energy Push: The country has switched on a new 52 MW solar plant—Ferké in Tchologo—covering 70 hectares with 73,000+ panels and targeting 90 GWh/year, meant to power 370,000+ households plus schools, health centers and businesses. Offshore Oil & Gas Buildout: Eni’s Baleine Phase 3 is moving fast: TechnipFMC has won a contract for flexible flowlines and risers, while Wison New Energies is set to deliver a 90,000-bpd FPSO to anchor the project off Côte d’Ivoire. Trade & Logistics: Ocean Network Express launches its Mediterranean Africa Express (MAX) feeder service, rotating via Dakar, Tema, Lekki and Abidjan to improve West Africa connectivity to global trade lanes. Cocoa Supply Pressure: Cocoa prices keep surging as heavy rains in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana flood roads, disrupt farm access and raise disease risks, with El Niño concerns adding extra supply-tightening expectations. Regional Industry Policy: A ministerial forum on critical minerals value chains and beneficiation is slated for Abidjan on July 10, aiming to push local processing and industrialisation.

Energy & Power: Ivory Coast switched on a new 52 MW solar plant in Ferké (XOF 41bn), with 73,000+ panels across 70 hectares, targeting 90 GWh/year and support for 370,000 households plus schools and health centers—part of a broader push with more solar projects lined up to 2027. Oil & Gas Engineering: TechnipFMC won an Eni contract for Baleine Phase 3 offshore Côte d’Ivoire, supplying flexible flowlines and risers to connect wells to a new FPSO—while Wison New Energies is building the 90,000-bpd vessel that will process 160m scf/day of gas. Shipping & Trade Logistics: HMM launched its Europe–West Africa feeder service “MA2” from Algeciras, linking Tangier, Dakar, Tema, Lekki and Abidjan on a 35-day cycle to improve route reliability via a hub-and-spoke setup. Cocoa & Agribusiness: Cocoa prices surged as heavy rains in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana flooded roads, disrupted farm access, and raised disease and yield risks; the market is also watching El Niño odds for tighter supply ahead. Industrial Policy: A ministerial forum on critical minerals value chains and beneficiation is set for Abidjan on July 10, aiming to push local processing and value addition to accelerate industrialisation. Fintech (Regional): BanffPay (Liberia) secured a PSP license to launch a unified pay-in/pay-out API—another sign of West Africa’s growing push toward digital payments infrastructure.

Cocoa Supply Shock: Cocoa prices jumped again as heavy rains across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana flooded roads, cut farmers’ access to farms and ports, and raised disease risks—pushing expectations of tighter 2026/27 supplies. Agroforestry Push: In Côte d’Ivoire, farmers are shifting from full-sun cocoa to agroforestry, using shade and fruit trees to cool plots and restore productivity; one case study says output doubled from 1,000 kg (2023) to 2,000 kg (2025). Critical Minerals Agenda: The AfDB and partners will host a July 10 ministerial forum in Abidjan on critical minerals value chains and beneficiation—aiming to move from raw exports to local processing, jobs, and energy security. Offshore Oil Expansion: Altera signed principal agreements with Eni for an FPSO for Baleine Phase 3 off Côte d’Ivoire, with a 15-year charter and capacity to produce 90,000 bpd. Industrial Diplomacy: Australia appointed Keara Shaw as High Commissioner to Ghana with non-resident accreditation to Côte d’Ivoire and other West African states, highlighting cooperation on trade, resources, and climate-smart agriculture.

Critical Minerals & Industrial Policy: The AfDB-led ministerial forum on critical minerals value chains and beneficiation will convene in Abidjan on July 10, aiming to push local processing, value addition and financing for resources like cobalt, lithium, graphite and rare earths—key inputs for energy, jobs and industrialisation. Oil & Gas Engineering: Altera Infrastructure has signed principal agreements with Eni to supply an FPSO for Baleine Phase 3 off Côte d’Ivoire—90,000 bpd oil, 160 mcf/d gas and 15-year charter—built in China by Wison New Energies. Agroforestry Cocoa Upgrade: In southern Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa farmers are shifting from full-sun plots to agroforestry, with shade and fruit trees helping double output (example: 1,000 kg to 2,000 kg over two years). Animation Industry Push: Abidjan will launch MAFA, Africa’s first animation film market, in November 2026—positioning the city as a new hub for deal-making, financing and distribution. World Cup, but with a business lens: Racist-coded football commentary is under renewed scrutiny after Belgium coach Rudi Garcia’s remarks about Senegal, spotlighting how media narratives can shape reputations around African teams.